College Admissions is Broken
College Admissions has become a whole different thing in just the last 25 years.
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College admissions is broken. Except there is no singular “college admissions.” College admissions operates separately at every single college, and the college application process is different for every single student.
Every year, about 1,700 selective colleges across America receive over 15 million applications from about 1.6 million students. That is the universe of college admissions. Our most recent overall data from the federal government is from 2023-2024, a typical lag for such a huge amount of data. But the overall trends are obvious. The number of selective colleges in America stays roughly the same. The number of students attending four-year colleges rises slightly.
Each year, a slightly larger number of students send many, many more applications to essentially the same number of colleges. That is what is broken in college admissions. The overwhelming number of applications harms admissions offices, high school counselors, and especially students. This is also a 21st century phenomenon, which means no one is used to the new reality of college admissions.
I have pulled the data for Applications, Admittances, and Enrollments from 2002 to 2024 for a group of 520 colleges from the United States Department of Education’s IPEDS Data Service.1 This is the list of schools I use to create the Admissions Abstract Data Table, available to all paid subscribers to this Substack. Armed with that basic data, I also was able to find the Admit Rate and Yield Rate for each school each year. Not every school had data for each year–some have been established since 2002–but every year had at least 500 schools with data.2
The number of enrolled students at these schools has gone from 812,790 in 2001-2002 to 1,159,683 in 2023-2024–a 42.67% increase. Over the same timeframe, there was a 215.79% increase in applications, from 3,434,400 to 10,845,827. The number of applications per enrollee went from 4.23 to 9.35. One-and-a-half times as many students are submitting more than three times as many applications overall, and students are completing twice as many applications since 2002.
This can be seen as a good thing for colleges. After all, they all want more applications every year, and this is the season for the annual bragging about the fantastic admitted class of 2030. Admissions Offices have to worry less and less about if they have enough applicants to make a class, or even if their possible admitted pool will have the right academic standards. An overwhelming number of applications eliminates many of the downside worries for enrollment management.
The overall data shows that the overall admit rate between 2002 and 2024 has gone from 59.2% to 53.24%. Further, the lowest overall admit rate for these groups of colleges was in 2015, when it was 51.5%. The selective colleges in this group have admitted between 50% and 60% of their applicants each year. What has shifted dramatically is the Yield Rate. In 2001-2002, schools enrolled 39.97% of their admitted students. That fell to 20.08% in 2023-2024. A quarter-century ago, most schools could assume nearly half of their admitted students would enroll. Now, schools typically can only expect about a fifth of admitted students to enroll. That makes figuring out who should be admitted even tougher.
Not every school conducts their admissions process the same way of course. Extremely selective colleges are extremely selective in part because they have absurdly high yield rates. Brown University, CalTech, Columbia University, Cornell University, Dartmouth College, Duke University, Harvard University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Northwestern University, Princeton University, University of Chicago, University of Pennsylvania, and Vanderbilt University all have yield rates above 50%. These schools can expect a majority of admitted students to show up on campus in the fall.
That list includes all 8 Ivy League schools, as well as some others often considered “Ivy Plus.” Ivy Plus is a fluid term that is “the 8 Ivies plus whatever schools want to go along with a consortium or prove a point about higher education.” The schools listed above also all had explosive growth in Applications since 2002. MIT had a 165% jump in Applications, from 10,940 to 28,232. Harvard went from 18,932 to 54,008, a 176.58% increase. Princeton went from 14,288 applications to 40,468 for a 183.23% boost. Every other school listed above tripled its applicants or better in about two decades.
A school that isn’t listed above but is often considered an “Ivy Plus” school is Georgetown. Georgetown “only” had a 68.2% increase–15,237 to 26,131–in applications from 2002 to 2024. Georgetown also stands out among Ivy Plus and almost every selective college for not being a member of the Common App. This will change for the 2026-2027 cycle, but Georgetown is already behind its peers because it was the last Common App holdout. (MIT is no longer a Common App member, but only made that change recently.)
The Common App is the biggest driver of the exploding application trend. The Common App was begun in 1975 by just 15 schools. The idea was simple, to provide a joint application to ease the process of sending applications to multiple colleges. A joint application is still helpful for applicants. The Common App continues to work for increased opportunity and equity in college admissions. It was also founded in an era of paper applications, built by selective private schools, and almost entirely used in the Northeast. That has changed. The Common App had 547 members in 2014-2015, and its near-doubling of member schools since has come from adding public institutions in the South and Midwest.
The near-monopoly the Common Application has among application portals makes it the first stop for students. While it’s over 1,000 members do not include every selective college (as mentioned above, Georgetown and MIT operated their own portals while the University of California and California State University systems have their own applications), students can entirely apply to a robust college list using only the Common Application. Its dominance can be seen by the fact that its main rival, the Coalition Application, has no schools on its platform that are not also on the Common App.
The Common App’s widespread availability is not the only reason it has driven overwhelming growth in application numbers. Applying to many schools through the Common App is absurdly easy. Before even selecting any colleges for an application list, a student can fill out basic personal information, upload their Common App essay, and ask their school counselor to upload a school profile and transcript. If a school does not require supplemental essays or additional recommendations, then a student can apply with one click and paying the application fee. If a student has a fee waiver, they don’t even have to pay.
This is a very 21st century story of technological growth rapidly transforming a process, while most people engaged in the process were trained in the old methods. The Common App’s Profile, the questionnaire of basic student information, is an outgrowth of what existed on the paper form before it became an online portal. Colleges describe their admissions processes as largely staying the same over the years to provide consistency. (See the SFFA v Harvard case, which detailed the Harvard Admissions process in the district court ruling.) High schools brag about where their students ended up matriculating.
Yet applying to college in 2026 is extremely different from applying to college 25 years ago. Admissions offices can muddle through because more applications means more outstanding students in the applicant pool. They probably can’t be as confident they are taking the right students for their school. College administrators can brag about lower admit rates. Selectivity is also a consideration for the US News and World Report rankings.
High school students don’t care about what happened last year, much less 25 years ago. They do care about how best to manage their application process. That means the advice they receive needs to be perfect. This puts high school counselors in a bind. The chances of admission at any school, the ideal number of applications for each student, and even how to navigate contacting every school on a list gets tougher to explain every year. And parents of high school students certainly don’t have any sense of what admissions has become.
The broken college admissions process sends kids spinning every fall. By spring, its the college admissions offices’ turn–especially those who can’t rely on enrolling most admitted students. The Common Application can help heal the process, either by limiting the number of schools students can apply to or by requiring every school to have a teacher recommendation and supplemental essay. But there is no sign anyone will slow down students applying to more and more schools every year.
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In alphabetical order, as they are listed by the Department of Education: Abilene Christian University, Agnes Scott College, Alabama A & M University, Alabama State University, Albion College, Albright College, Alcorn State University, Allegheny College, Alma College, American University, Amherst College, Appalachian State University, Arizona State University Campus Immersion, Arkansas State University, Auburn University, Augustana College, Aurora University, Austin College, Austin Peay State University, Ball State University, Bard College, Barnard College, Bates College, Baylor University, Bellarmine University, Belmont University, Beloit College, Bennington College, Berea College, Berry College, Bethune-Cookman University, Binghamton University, Boise State University, Boston College, Boston University, Bowdoin College, Bowie State University, Bowling Green State University-Main Campus, Bradley University, Brandeis University, Brigham Young University, Brown University, Bryant University, Bryn Mawr College, Bucknell University, Butler University, California Baptist University, California Institute of Technology, California Lutheran University, California Polytechnic State University-San Luis Obispo, California State Polytechnic University-Humboldt, California State Polytechnic University-Pomona, California State University-Bakersfield, California State University-Chico, California State University-Dominguez Hills, California State University-East Bay, California State University-Fresno, California State University-Fullerton, California State University-Long Beach, California State University-Los Angeles, California State University-Northridge, California State University-Sacramento, California State University-San Bernardino, California State University-Stanislaus, Campbell University, Canisius University, Carleton College, Carnegie Mellon University, Carthage College, Case Western Reserve University, Central Connecticut State University, Central Michigan University, Centre College, Chapman University, Charleston Southern University, Chicago State University, Citadel Military College of South Carolina, Claremont McKenna College, Clark University, Clemson University, Cleveland State University, Coastal Carolina University, Coe College, Colby College, Colgate University, College of Charleston, College of Saint Benedict, College of the Atlantic, College of the Holy Cross, Colorado College, Colorado State University-Fort Collins, Columbia University in the City of New York, Connecticut College, Coppin State University, Cornell College, Cornell University, Creighton University, CUNY Brooklyn College, CUNY Queens College, Dartmouth College, Davidson College, Delaware State University, Denison University, DePaul University, DePauw University, Dickinson College, Drake University, Drew University, Drexel University, Duke University, Duquesne University, Earlham College, East Carolina University, East Tennessee State University, Eastern Illinois University, Eastern Kentucky University, Eastern Michigan University, Eastern Washington University, Eckerd College, Elon University, Emerson College, Emmanuel College, Emory University, Endicott College, Fairfield University, Fairleigh Dickinson University-Florham Campus, Florida Agricultural and Mechanical University, Florida Atlantic University, Florida Gulf Coast University, Florida International University, Florida State University, Fordham University, Franklin and Marshall College, Franklin W Olin College of Engineering, Furman University, Gardner-Webb University, George Mason University, George Washington University, Georgetown University, Georgia Institute of Technology-Main Campus, Georgia Southern University, Georgia State University, Gettysburg College, Gonzaga University, Gordon College, Goucher College, Grambling State University, Grand Canyon University, Grinnell College, Guilford College, Gustavus Adolphus College, Hamilton College, Hampden-Sydney College, Hampton University, Harvard University, Harvey Mudd College, Haverford College, Hendrix College, High Point University, Hiram College, Hobart William Smith Colleges, Hofstra University, Hope College, Houghton University, Houston Christian University, Howard University, Illinois State University, Illinois Wesleyan University, Indiana State University, Indiana University-Bloomington, Indiana University-Indianapolis, Iona University, Iowa State University, Ithaca College, Jackson State University, Jacksonville State University, Jacksonville University, James Madison University, Johns Hopkins University, Juniata College, Kalamazoo College, Kansas State University, Kennesaw State University, Kent State University at Kent, Kenyon College, Knox College, La Salle University, Lafayette College, Lake Forest College, Lamar University, Lawrence University, Lehigh University, Lewis & Clark College, Liberty University, Lipscomb University, Long Island University, Longwood University, Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College, Louisiana Tech University, Loyola Marymount University, Loyola University Chicago, Loyola University Maryland, Luther College, Lycoming College, Macalester College, Manhattan College, Manhattanville College, Marist College, Marquette University, Marshall University, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, McDaniel College, McNeese State University, Mercer University, Merrimack College, Miami University-Oxford, Michigan State University, Middle Tennessee State University, Middlebury College, Millsaps College, Mississippi State University, Mississippi Valley State University, Missouri State University-Springfield, Monmouth University, Montana State University, Moravian University, Morehead State University, Morehouse College, Morgan State University, Mount Holyoke College, Mount Saint Mary's University, Mount St. Mary's University, Muhlenberg College, Murray State University, Nebraska Wesleyan University, New Jersey Institute of Technology, New Mexico State University-Main Campus, New York University, Niagara University, Nicholls State University, Norfolk State University, North Carolina A & T State University, North Carolina Central University, North Carolina State University at Raleigh, North Dakota State University-Main Campus, Northeastern University, Northern Arizona University, Northern Illinois University, Northern Kentucky University, Northwestern State University of Louisiana, Northwestern University, Oakland University, Oberlin College, Occidental College, Oglethorpe University, Ohio State University-Main Campus, Ohio University-Main Campus, Ohio Wesleyan University, Oklahoma State University-Main Campus, Old Dominion University, Oral Roberts University, Oregon State University, Pennsylvania State University-Main Campus, Pepperdine University, Pitzer College, Pomona College, Portland State University, Prairie View A & M University, Presbyterian College, Princeton University, Providence College, Purdue University Fort Wayne, Purdue University-Main Campus, Quinnipiac University, Radford University, Randolph College, Randolph-Macon College, Reed College, Rhodes College, Rice University, Rider University, Ripon College, Roanoke College, Robert Morris University, Rollins College, Rowan University, Rutgers University-New Brunswick, Sacred Heart University, Saint Francis University, Saint Johns University, Saint Joseph's University, Saint Louis University, Saint Mary's College, Saint Mary's College of California, Saint Norbert College, Saint Peter's University, Sam Houston State University, Samford University, San Diego State University, San Francisco State University, San Jose State University, Santa Clara University, Sarah Lawrence College, Scripps College, Seattle University, Seton Hall University, Siena College, Simmons University, Skidmore College, Smith College, Sonoma State University, South Carolina State University, South Dakota State University, Southeast Missouri State University, Southeastern Louisiana University, Southern Illinois University-Carbondale, Southern Illinois University-Edwardsville, Southern Methodist University, Southern University and A & M College, Southern Utah University, Southwestern University, Spelman College, Springfield College, St Bonaventure University, St Lawrence University, St Olaf College, St. John's College, St. John's College, St. John's University-New York, Stanford University, Stephen F Austin State University, Stetson University, Stony Brook University, SUNY at Purchase College, Susquehanna University, Swarthmore College, Sweet Briar College, Syracuse University, Tarleton State University, Temple University, Tennessee State University, Tennessee Technological University, Texas A & M University-College Station, Texas A & M University-Corpus Christi, Texas Christian University, Texas Southern University, Texas State University, Texas Tech University, The Catholic University of America, The College of Wooster, The Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art, The Evergreen State College, The New School, The University of Alabama, The University of Montana, The University of Tennessee-Chattanooga, The University of Tennessee-Knoxville, The University of Tennessee-Martin, The University of Texas at Arlington, The University of Texas at Austin, The University of Texas at Dallas, The University of Texas at El Paso, The University of Texas at San Antonio, The University of Texas Rio Grande Valley, The University of the South, Towson University, Transylvania University, Trinity College, Trinity University, Troy University, Tufts University, Tulane University of Louisiana, Union College, United States Air Force Academy, United States Military Academy, United States Naval Academy, University at Albany, University at Buffalo, University of Akron Main Campus, University of Alabama at Birmingham, University of Arizona, University of Arkansas, University of Arkansas at Little Rock, University of Arkansas at Pine Bluff, University of California-Berkeley, University of California-Davis, University of California-Irvine, University of California-Los Angeles, University of California-Merced, University of California-Riverside, University of California-San Diego, University of California-Santa Barbara, University of California-Santa Cruz, University of Central Arkansas, University of Central Florida, University of Chicago, University of Cincinnati-Main Campus, University of Colorado Boulder, University of Connecticut, University of Dallas, University of Dayton, University of Delaware, University of Denver, University of Detroit Mercy, University of Evansville, University of Florida, University of Georgia, University of Hawaii at Manoa, University of Houston, University of Idaho, University of Illinois Chicago, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, University of Iowa, University of Kansas, University of Kentucky, University of La Verne, University of Louisiana at Lafayette, University of Louisiana at Monroe, University of Louisville, University of Maine, University of Maryland Eastern Shore, University of Maryland-Baltimore County, University of Maryland-College Park, University of Massachusetts-Amherst, University of Massachusetts-Lowell, University of Memphis, University of Miami, University of Michigan-Ann Arbor, University of Minnesota-Twin Cities, University of Mississippi, University of Missouri-Columbia, University of Missouri-Kansas City, University of Nebraska at Omaha, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, University of Nevada-Las Vegas, University of Nevada-Reno, University of New Hampshire-Main Campus, University of New Mexico-Main Campus, University of New Orleans, University of North Alabama, University of North Carolina Asheville, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, University of North Carolina at Charlotte, University of North Carolina at Greensboro, University of North Carolina Wilmington, University of North Dakota, University of North Florida, University of North Texas, University of Northern Colorado, University of Northern Iowa, University of Notre Dame, University of Oklahoma-Norman Campus, University of Oregon, University of Pennsylvania, University of Pittsburgh-Pittsburgh Campus, University of Portland, University of Puget Sound, University of Redlands, University of Rhode Island, University of Richmond, University of Rochester, University of San Diego, University of San Francisco, University of South Alabama, University of South Carolina-Columbia, University of South Carolina-Upstate, University of South Dakota, University of South Florida, University of Southern California, University of Southern Mississippi, University of the Incarnate Word, University of the Pacific, University of Toledo, University of Tulsa, University of Utah, University of Vermont, University of Virginia-Main Campus, University of Washington-Seattle Campus, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay, University of Wisconsin-Madison, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, University of Wyoming, Ursinus College, Utah State University, Valparaiso University, Vanderbilt University, Vassar College, Villanova University, Virginia Commonwealth University, Virginia Military Institute, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Wabash College, Wagner College, Wake Forest University, Washington & Jefferson College, Washington and Lee University, Washington College, Washington State University, Washington University in St Louis, Wellesley College, Wesleyan University, West Virginia University, Western Carolina University, Western Illinois University, Western Kentucky University, Western Michigan University, Wheaton College, Whitman College, Wichita State University, Willamette University, William & Mary, William Jewell College, Williams College, Winthrop University, Wittenberg University, Wofford College, Wright State University-Main Campus, Xavier University, Yale University, Youngstown State University
The IPEDS Data Service has the data since 2001, but the 2001 data seems quite off. For one, many more schools do not have data, including prominent and highly selective schools like Columbia and Duke. The numbers for certain schools also look like outliers compared to their subsequent data.